The standard advice is to move up a timeframe when you are losing on a fast one. We tested the same five strategies on the same four pairs across five timeframes to see whether the chart makes the difference people claim.
| Timeframe | Trades | Per run | Avg PF | Out-of-sample PF | Profitable runs | Net pips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5m | 11,760 | 588 | 0.91 | 0.93 | 1/20 | -8,029 |
| 15m | 3,819 | 191 | 1.01 | 0.86 | 11/20 | +141 |
| 30m | 3,808 | 190 | 0.95 | 1.02 | 7/20 | -2,474 |
| 1h | 3,859 | 193 | 0.98 | 1.04 | 8/20 | -3,123 |
| 4h | 1,484 | 74 | 0.98 | 1.09 | 9/20 | -5,232 |
Best average profit factor: 15m at 1.01. Worst: 5m at 0.91. The spread between them is small — much smaller than most people expect, and much smaller than the difference between pairs on the same timeframe.
Trade count, enormously. The 5-minute chart produced roughly 8× the trades of the 4-hour. Since the spread is paid per trade and not per hour, that is 8× the cost for the same six months of market.
That is the real mechanism behind "move up a timeframe". It is not that the slower chart is cleaner or that the signals are better. It is that you trade less, so you pay less. If your strategy has a genuine edge, a slower chart gives you fewer chances to use it; if it does not, a slower chart simply bleeds you more slowly.
A strategy without an edge does not acquire one on a slower chart. The best timeframe here is 15m, and it is barely break-even — +141 pips across 3,819 trades, which is zero with extra steps. Nothing in this table turns a losing set of strategies into a winning one. It only changes how fast they lose.
The original version of this experiment held the stop at 20 pips on every timeframe. That sounds neutral and is not. A 20-pip stop is about eight 5-minute bars wide and about one 4-hour bar wide — so on the slow charts the stop was sitting inside a single bar’s normal range and getting hit by noise that carried no information at all.
It produced a confident answer, and the answer was backwards:
| Timeframe | Fixed 20-pip stop (wrong) | Stop scaled to the bar (this page) |
|---|---|---|
| 5m | PF 1.05 · 16/20 profitable | PF 0.91 · 1/20 profitable |
| 15m | PF 1.01 · 13/20 | PF 1.01 · 11/20 |
| 30m | PF 0.87 · 1/20 | PF 0.95 · 7/20 |
| 1h | PF 0.87 · 0/20 | PF 0.98 · 8/20 |
| 4h | PF 0.91 · 5/20 | PF 0.98 · 9/20 |
The first run said fast charts were clearly best and hourly charts were a disaster. It was measuring its own stop distance. We are showing it because this is the single commonest way a backtest lies to you: not by getting the arithmetic wrong, but by quietly holding something constant that should have scaled, and then reporting the consequence as a discovery.
If you take one thing from this page, take that rather than the ranking.
Higher timeframes have fewer trades, so their numbers carry more uncertainty. A 4-hour run with forty trades can look excellent or dreadful on luck alone; a 5-minute run with two thousand cannot. Weight the rows by the trade count, not by the profit factor.
The strategy tester covers 5-minute to daily, with history stretching back further on the slower frames — five years on daily, because six months of daily candles is about 130 bars and that is an anecdote, not a sample.
Our own signals run on a fast chart and pay for it in spread, which is why every result we publish is net of that cost.
See today’s signals →